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Drought and Demand: Modelling the Impact of Restrictions on Demand During Drought

Reference: 07/WR/02/3
ISBN: 1 84057 445 3
Published Date: 21/09/2022

The objective of this study was to attempt to quantify the impact of restrictions on demand during the drought, using a multiple linear regression model.

The approach was to create a simple spreadsheet model for predicting daily demand in the absence of demand restrictions, based on a number of key explanatory factors - weather variables and time-variant factors (such as month of the year, weekends etc.).  This model allowed prediction of what demands would have been in 2005-06 had restrictions not been imposed.  The results were compared against those from a second predictive model of demand with restrictions included as variables.  This enabled the effect of different restrictions on demand to be calculated in each resource zone (although there are limitations associated with regression modelling).

WRMP19 Methods – Household Consumption Forecasting

Reference: 15/WR/02/9
ISBN: 1 84057 805 X
Published Date: 25/01/2021

The Household Consumption Forecasting Guidance Manual provides practitioners with technical guidance on how to forecast household water consumption.  It presents methods to determine the most appropriate approaches for use, depending on the ‘level of concern’ in a water resources zone. It provides an outline of different forecasting methods, identifying data requirements and pros and cons of each.  It includes sections on understanding the factors that influence household consumption, methods for segmenting customers (e.g. by meter status), dealing with weather effects, and uncertainty.  The guidance has been developed to link with other UKWIR reports that support the WRMP19 water resources planning guidelines, including methods on property, population and occupancy forecasting and risk based planning.  The manual sets out several alternative methods to the micro-component forecasting approach that has been used by the water industry for a number years.  It also includes a case study of an imaginary water resources planner.  The manual is accompanied by Supporting Guidance which presents the results of stakeholder consultation; a review of the factors that influence consumption and further background on methods for forecasting household consumption.

The Full Report and Supporting Guidance can be ordered in printed format as normal, or downloaded free of charge below:

• Full Report
• Supporting Guidance

Deriving a Best Value Water Resources Management Plan

Reference: 20/WR/02/14
ISBN: 978-1-84057-905-5
Published Date: 05/12/2020

The UKWIR research project “Deriving a best value Water Resources Management Plan” was commissioned to provide a comprehensive framework and guidance incorporating technical, economic, environmental and legal perspectives to allow organisations to derive a best value strategic water resources plan (WRP) in the UK and Ireland.  The project has developed a best value WRP framework which includes support guidance on environmental regulations, regulator engagement, stakeholder engagement and customer engagement.  The generic approach within the framework is based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and sets out the steps that planners can follow to develop their best value WRP.  The framework provides a definition of a best value WRP and identifies principles of best value planning.  The deliverables include a final report and a practitioner’s guide.  This project ensures that companies and regional groups have a framework they can use for best value planning.