ISBN: 1 84057 779 7
Published Date: 23/07/2015
This project sought to establish quantifiable links between extreme weather events and their impact on operations and assets in relation to service. Following a series of consultation exercises, literature review and voting, 15 perceived linkages between weather and performance were analysed.
Of the 15 linkages analysed, 13 demonstrated that the hypothesis of weather impacting performance was true, 8 resulted in the development of algorithms and 1 resulted in an algorithm with good predictive potential without further analysis. All linkages would benefit from further analysis with more data (performance and weather), and further investigation into weather-driven and non-weather-related causal factors for the responses.
Correlations have been compared with climate change projections from the latest available science to provide an indication of how the performance in these linkages might change in the future. For one linkage, a worked example has been prepared that illustrates how the predictive model can be used to make estimates of energy costs in the future using the UKCP09 Weather Generator.