General Impacts

Climate Change Modelling and the WRMP

Reference: 18/CL/04/16
ISBN: 1 84057 862 9
Published Date: 09/11/2018

This Guidance reviews current climate change evidence and methodologies and proposes a new approach for WRMP 2024 designed to be used with the forthcoming UKCP18 climate projections. The existing 'top-down' approach to climate change is resource intensive and has led to significant investment to understand how systems respond to different climate exposures. In advance of WRMP 2024, this project has sought to build upon this understanding and has developed a 'bottom-up' approach framed in the context of system resilience to droughts. An online tool accompanies the Guidance to enable practitioners to apply the approach to quickly evaluate new climate change evidence and identify any scenarios for subsequent analysis, where appropriate. Using ten contrasting case studies, the Guidance demonstrates how the approach and tool can be used to assess new climate change evidence in a proportionate, targeted and system specific manner and communicate the results to stakeholders.

Price: £250  

Planning for, and Responding to, the Mean and Extremes of Weather - Technical Report

Reference: 15/CL/01/23
ISBN: 1 84057 779 7
Published Date: 23/07/2015

This project sought to establish quantifiable links between extreme weather events and their impact on operations and assets in relation to service. Following a series of consultation exercises, literature review and voting, 15 perceived linkages between weather and performance were analysed.

Of the 15 linkages analysed, 13 demonstrated that the hypothesis of weather impacting performance was true, 8 resulted in the development of algorithms and 1 resulted in an algorithm with good predictive potential without further analysis. All linkages would benefit from further analysis with more data (performance and weather), and further investigation into weather-driven and non-weather-related causal factors for the responses.

Correlations have been compared with climate change projections from the latest available science to provide an indication of how the performance in these linkages might change in the future. For one linkage, a worked example has been prepared that illustrates how the predictive model can be used to make estimates of energy costs in the future using the UKCP09 Weather Generator.

Price: £37  

Impact of Climate Change on Water Demand - Main Report

Reference: 13/CL/04/12
ISBN: 1 84057 684 7
Published Date: 19/06/2013

This project assessed the impact of climate change on water demand for use by water companies in their demand forecasts.
Five case studies were analysed to derive relationships between water use and variations in weather. These relationships were then used with UKCP09 climate projections to derive estimates of the impact of climate change on household water demand for each UK River Basin District.
The results suggest that climate change will cause annual average UK household demand to increase by about 0.6% between 2012 and 2040 with largest increases expected in the South of England.
No significant effect was found for non-household demand, except for agriculture and horticulture in the Kent case study.
This report and the accompanying Excel-based look-up tables provide water resources planners with empirical estimates of the impact of climate change for their area, supply the evidence for the predictions, and enable water resources planners to update their 2014 WRMPs.

This report is supplied and sold as a set with 13/CL/04/13 for £500.

Price: £31