Drought and Demand: Modelling the Impact of Restrictions on Demand During Drought

Price: £50  

The objective of this study was to attempt to quantify the impact of restrictions on demand during the drought, using a multiple linear regression model.

The approach was to create a simple spreadsheet model for predicting daily demand in the absence of demand restrictions, based on a number of key explanatory factors - weather variables and time-variant factors (such as month of the year, weekends etc.).  This model allowed prediction of what demands would have been in 2005-06 had restrictions not been imposed.  The results were compared against those from a second predictive model of demand with restrictions included as variables.  This enabled the effect of different restrictions on demand to be calculated in each resource zone (although there are limitations associated with regression modelling).



UKWIR Reference :- 07/WR/02/3Published Date :- 01/01/2007
Retail Price (£) :- 50ISBN :- 1 84057 445 3