The 2024 Water Resource Management Plans (WRMP24) saw a step change, with the use of stochastic data sets for supply side assessments and the development of adaptive planning approaches. However, demand forecasting approaches have remained largely unchanged for the last 10 years or more. Over that time, we have experienced society changing events in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the effects of the changing climate through increases in the frequency of heatwaves, droughts and significant cold snaps. All these events have had an impact on the demand society has for water and where and how it is being used. A review of the demand forecasting approaches currently in use is required, to identify requirements improvement to ensure they remain fit for purpose for WRMP29 and beyond.

With a focus on implementation of smart metering over the coming AMP8 period, data and information on how and where water is being used will become more available and accessible to water resource planners. We need to harness the opportunity to use this information across the industry to inform our demand forecasting methods and assessment into the future. 

Our understanding of the effect of climate change on demand is also improving as a result of recent experiences through the drought in 2022 and the extremes in temperatures being experienced through both heatwaves during the summer and sudden cold snaps in the winter. There is an opportunity to draw on this recent experience to inform how we assess demand in the context of climate change into the future, and the type and duration of peak demands we are experiencing across the year. 

In applying for a non-essential water use ban (NEUB) drought order a water company must provide an assessment of its cost – benefit.  To calculate the costs and benefits of a NEUB, good information is needed about the make-up of the non-household customer base of the area the NEUB is to apply to, the water uses and related economics. Following the 2022 drought when a number of companies made preparations to apply for a NEUB, the lack of detailed understanding of the impacts of this was seen to be a concern, particularly to Retailers.

There are a number of challenges to establishing the level of detail of this information that is necessary to make meaningful estimates of the costs and benefits of applying a NEUB. The project will look to make a start in addressing these challenges by undertaking a data and literature review to provide an understanding of a potential follow on project that would look to quantify the costs and benefits of NEUB implementation.

The Big Question of ‘How do we halve our abstractions by 2050?’ is a key strategic research programme for UKWIR. However, at present it is not clear what the research needs are. These needs should take into account what research has been done and what is currently on-going. This project will produce a community-owned list of prioritised research needs in order to halve our abstractions by 2050. This list will support the development of a research programme, form the basis for future planning and identify potential collaborations with other research organisations.

The project will enable the following:

Identify the needs and potential outcomes for long-term research;

Facilitate collaboration with academics, research organisations, funding agencies, and other stakeholders;

Minimise the duplication of future research projects and ensure greater alignment.